Be Published or Perish: Polls and Party Coverage in the Run up to the 2013 German Election Campaign

• In Event: Who Will Win? The Media’s Role in the Formation of Electoral Expectations

Abstract

Recent studies found poll reporting in the media to influence voting. The question is whether this is due to poll reporting, or rather due to related features of media party coverage, like the amount of media attention for a party or the tone of coverage. To determine whether party coverage drives polls, or polls drive party coverage, this study uses pooled time series data of a media content analysis (N > 7000) of all major German newspapers and main evening TV news broadcasts during the 2013 German election campaign. Results show that the amount of attention media devote to a party, but not the (positive/negative) tone of its coverage, contributes to the success of that party in the polls. At the same time polls contribute to the amount of media attention for a party over time, but not to the tone of coverage. Polls and media attention allocated to a party co-evolve and in this way form a spiral that helps drive the success or failure of parties over the course of the campaign. Tone of party coverage in the media appears to matter less than media attention, suggesting that “all news is good news.”

Authors

• Sjoerd Stolwijk, U of Amsterdam

• Andreas Schuck, U of Amsterdam