The Effect of Issues and Favorability in the News on Electoral Volatility: The Underlying Mechanisms

• In Event: The Role of Candidates and Issues in Voting Behaviour

Abstract

The stability of vote choice has declined over the past decades in European democracies. News about campaign issues and candidates are expected to increasingly influence vote change. This study examines how these aspects of campaign news affect electoral volatility at the micro-level. In addition, it tests the impact of issues and favorability in the news simultaneously, to assess what matters most. We use panel-survey data (n=774) linked to a content analysis of campaign news during the 2012 Dutch elections. The results show that issue news leads to vote change in the direction of the party that owns the issue. Additionally, more favorable news about a party increases switching to that party. A comparison of the two types of campaign news shows that favorability matters more than issue news. This suggests that citizens’ changes in party preference are more driven by the media’s evaluations of parties than more substantive issue information.

Authors

• Sabine Geers, U of Amsterdam

• Linda Bos, University of Amsterdam

• Claes H. De Vreese, U of Amsterdam