Significance of Offline-Social Media Opinion Climate Perceptions on Voting Behavior in Singapore and Hong Kong

• In Event: ICA Plenary Interactive Paper/Poster Session II
  In Panel: Theme Interactive Poster Session: Transforming Communicative Power Through Evolving Electorates, Technologies, Communication, and Public Opinion (2 Posters)

Abstract

Many studies and theories have shown the strategic role of public opinion in influencing voters’ decisions during elections. Voters gauge what others think about the pertinent issues affecting society and performance of political candidates against their own opinions in order to make informed voting decisions. This largely perceptual process is, however, complicated by the evolving nature of public opinion due largely to the proliferation of socially networked media environments. Voters now need to deal with the increasingly non-monolithic nature of public opinion to consider the multiple layers of opinion climate perceived from majority others in society as well as those produced by aggregated ‘others’ on various forms of social networking platforms.

This study disentangles individual opinion of how well he or she thinks the government is handling three separate issues pertaining to population, transportation, and housing, from the perceived opinion of others i) in society, ii) on open-group social media platforms (e.g., Facebook, Twitter), and iii) on closed-group social media platforms (e.g., WhatsApp, Facebook messenger), and relate them to actual voting decisions controlled for demographic variables (age, gender, education level) and political predispositions (interest, perceived knowledge, partisanship).

Data obtained from a nationally representative online survey (N = 2000) conducted within the month past the 2015 general elections in Singapore showed significant pairwise differences between all opinion climates. This indicates that the different social media platforms provide perceived levels of public opinion differing from individual opinions and from those perceived of others’ in society. Significant relationships with voting decisions were found for three opinion types – own opinion (p < .001), perceived opinion from others in society (p < .01), and perceived opinion of others in closed-group social media platforms (p <.01) – with own opinion having the strongest relationship with voting pattern followed by perceived opinion from others in society and perceived opinion of others in closed-group social media platforms. The theoretical and political significance of findings are discussed in the contexts of Singapore and Hong Kong, two countries with similarly very high levels of social media users in Asia.

Author

• Elmie Nekmat, National University of Singapore