Evolving Ends: How the Syrian Conflict Parties’ Strategic Narratives Shape Domestic and International Debates in the News, Social Media, and Politics

• In Event: Strategic Narratives in Violent Conflict

Abstract

War, even in its most protracted form, is always a means to an end. Once the ends are achieved, war is meant to end. By constructing a desirable future after the war and promoting this vision in the domestic and foreign public debate, conflict actors legitimize their struggle and raise support. At the same time, especially in long, protracted conflicts, projections about the end of the war may evolve over time. Original objectives may appear increasingly unattainable or require reformulation, while new visions may come to the fore. Actors may attempt to mobilize additional fighters, forge new alliances or raise international support by constructing shared goals. Inversely, a reformulation of ends may enable political mediation and inform what counts as acceptable truce. Understanding the finalities constructed in conflict actors’ strategic narratives, as well as their adoption among different groups and foreign publics provides important insights into the dynamics of war. Drawing upon research in propaganda, public diplomacy, war reporting and conflict discourse, we propose a theoretical framework for the study of finalities in the construction of violent conflict.
In this study, we examine the strategic narratives constructed by five groups of actors in the Syrian civil war (government, insurgents, ISIS, Kurds) since the initial uprising in 2011. Identifying statements constructing finalities of the group’s respective struggle, we trace how similar projections are presented in six opinion-leading domestic (Tishreen, DP News, SANA, Baladna, Souriatna, Enab Baladi) and nine foreign news media (NY Times, CNN, Guardian, BBC, Süddeutsche, Deutsche Welle, Le Monde, RFI, AlJazeera), on Twitter, and in the debates within the British, German, French, and European Parliaments. Performing an automated content analysis to extract about 2000 meaningful concepts within these projections, we gauge to what extent different debates reflect the strategic narratives presented by each actor, and trace changes of alignment over time. Initial findings suggest a gradual shift toward a more inclusive debate within Syria, which is essentially disconnected from foreign debates over Syria’s future. The study discusses the implications of the presented, compatible and conflicting, isolated and widely accepted finalities, for the prospects of a negotiated solution for the protracted Syrian conflict.

Authors

• Christian Baden, Hebrew U of Jerusalem

• Keren Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Hebrew U of Jerusalem