Media Projections as Interventions

• In Event: Future as Intervention/Intervening

Abstract

From biblical prophecies and visions of Greek oracles to scientific forecasts and predictions of pundits and Wall Street analysts, projections about the future have always played an important part in the lives of individuals and societies. By creating expectations, fears and hopes, projections enable people to gear towards the future and adapt their plans and behaviours accordingly. This, in turn, affects the current and anticipated state of affairs, sometimes through processes of self-fulfilling and self-defeating prophecy. While considerable scepticism has been voiced about the feasibility of predicting major events, research on predictions has made significant headway in understanding the heuristics and cognitive biases that underlie judgments about the future. Likewise, technological and scientific advances have contributed to the development of interventions and tools that facilitate more accurate geopolitical predictions, by both individual forecasters and computer algorithms. News media have been viewed in these studies primarily as a source of information about the past: Reports of recent events can be used to update predictions and news archives can help detect and extrapolate past patterns, as a basis for predicting future events. However, little is known about the ways in which projections (whether accurate or not) develop and operate in complex information environments, where they shape and are shaped by the beliefs and expectations of multiple actors. In such social processes, media serve not only as a repository of past events but also as an important venue and vehicle for engaging with the future. Projections pertaining to public matters are articulated, negotiated and circulated through the interaction of numerous social actors, primarily through the media, where they evolve and inform societies. This paper offers a conceptual framework and research agenda for addressing these social dynamics, while using examples from recent cases where projections played a major role, such as the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump's presidential bid.

Author

• Keren Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Hebrew U of Jerusalem