Assessing the Predictive Value of Parasocial Relationship Intensity in a Political Context

• In Event: Media Effects on Voters

Abstract

This study explores the ability of parasocial relationships to predict support for political candidates and elected officials. A May, 2017 survey of U.S. adults (N = 2,055) included items that reflect traditional approaches to the study of candidate support (e.g., political party identification, policy agreement) along with several batteries of a newly-developed political para-social relationship (PPSR) measure. This study gives primary attention to predicting support for U.S. President Donald J. Trump, but also focuses on Secretary Hillary Clinton and U.S. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. Parasocial relations prove to be a powerful predictor of Trump support, outperforming all other predictors (including past voting behavior). This study also explores what predicts citizen-politician PPSR. Citizens’ parasocial relationships with Trump are predicted by general political knowledge (-), 2016 Trump voting (+), support for Trump’s policies (+), along with news media exposure (+), and social media following of Trump (+).

Authors

• Jonathan Cohen, U of Haifa

• Lance Holbert, Temple U