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Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Reinforcing Spiral Models in the Presence of Actual Spiral Processes

Mon, May 28, 8:00 to 9:15, Hilton Prague, Floor: M, Palmovka

Abstract

In recent years, communication scholars from different fields have been proposing many new theoretical and empirical models concerning reinforcing spirals in media use, effects, and content. The statistical models used to test these theories are, however, far from consensual to date and leave researchers with a plethora of decisions in their configuration. In this paper, we suggest using agent-based modeling (ABM) to assess the quality of these models before applying them to actual data. Using simulated scenarios in which the dynamic processes occur as predicted, the reliability and fit of reinforcing spiral models may be critically assessed and documented beforehand and indicate optimal configurations for a given theory. The approach is illustrated with different dynamic processes and statistical models and discussed for future uses in reinforcing spirals research.

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