Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horserace Confuses and Demobilizes the Public

• In Event: Covering Politics: New Political Journalism Research

Abstract

Horserace coverage in American elections has shifted focus from late-breaking poll numbers to sophisticated meta analytic forecasts that often emphasize candidates' probability of victory. We first show that this ``probabilistic horeserace'' is now an important part of the national conversation in the U.S., and appears more often on media outlets with liberal-leaning audiences. We then show that the public incorrectly interprets estimates of win probabilities and more generally has difficulty assessing the probability a candidate will win. When the favored candidate is ahead, win-probabilities convey the impression that the race is less competitive compared to vote share estimates. More importantly, we show that these impressions of probabilistic forecasts cause people not to vote in a behavioral game. The strength of these findings suggests that even in close races, probabilistic horserace coverage can confuse and demobilize the public.

Authors

• Yphtach Lelkes, University of Pennsylvania

• Solomon Messing, Stanford U

• Sean Westwood, Dartmouth U