Using Scenario Planning and Scenario-Based Training to Develop Leaders

• In Event: Using Scenario-Based Training and Simulations to Develop Leadership Competencies

Short Description

Preparing leaders to be effective crisis managers requires targeted training. Evolved from Herman Kahn’s method to “think the unthinkable,” scenario planning provides a useful model for preparing leaders to respond to extraordinary situations. The presenter will share a model for a leadership training program for crisis management and critical incident containment.

Detailed Abstract

Bob Dylan, 2016 Nobel Prize winner in poetry, once penned a song titled, The Times They Are A-Changing. The third verse accurately portrays our world today:

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's the battle outside raging
It'll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changing

The Crisis

Phil Lesly defines a crisis as “a stage at which all future events affecting a person or organization will be determined. It is a major turning point resulting in permanent drastic change. It is far more crucial than most issues or emergencies. Crises are of great importance, but they are rare” (Dalton, 1991, p.8).

Since September 11, 2001 in America, crisis events such as active shooter, incendiary devices and weather related incidents have occurred throughout our world. During these events, local, state, federal and other countries commit time, money and other resources to mitigate the consequences of the disaster. Police and fire departments, emergency medical services, health care organizations, public works departments, private industry and non-governmental organizations descend on the disaster site (Moats, Chermack & Dooley, 2008).

Newsome, Scott & Vanslyke (1993) note that some crises result from intentional and some are unintentional acts. Intentional acts are committed by a group or an individual person. These acts of terrorism result in loss of life or freedom and can include bomb or product-tampering threats, hostile takeovers, active shooter events or other malfeasance. Unintentional events include explosions, fire or chemical leaks.

It is critical for higher education institutions to develop a clear idea about the different kind of crises that can strike so they can be ready to handle them. Different types of crises have diverse implications for public and private institutions. Many times a crisis implies negative effects and it is seen as an adverse event that affects the life of the institution. This can produce loss of employees moral (or life) and public misunderstanding (Moore, 1993). Therefore, it is important to have a crisis management plan to minimize negative impacts. Establishing a plan and implementation to handle a crisis is good policy for higher education globally today.

During these turbulent times, leaders are expected to make high consequence decisions with incomplete information, ill-defined goals, and the pressures of time and constantly changing situation by drawing on their training and experience. Sadly, this is one area of leadership development rarely addressed in formal education or training.

Preparing leaders to be effective crisis managers requires coordinated planning and training (Lindell et.al., 2007). In fact, most emergency response commanders develop detailed, comprehensive plans to implement a specific and planned response to a planned emergency (Lindell & Perry, 1992). How therefore, can leaders be prepared to lead in disaster situations regardless of the type of act?

Scenario planning can break the constraints by empowering individuals to be more open to multiple perspectives, assist individuals and organizations better cope with complexity and provide a context that frames the experienced events (Moats, Chermack & Dooley, 2008). In fact, Mitroff and Alpasian (2003) contend “the fact that we cannot, and never will be able to, prevent all crises from occurring does not relieve us from the moral responsibility of doing everything that we can do to make their occurrences less likely and of less impact” (p. 19).

Scenario planning actually evolved from Herman Kahn’s method to “think the unthinkable” (Kahn & Wiener, 1967). The idea of scenario planning is to understand no one specific solution will work in a disaster situation. Instead, multiple scenarios or stories or cases are intended to shift the focus to then consider numerous ways the future might unfold. Although there are various ways to conduct a scenario planning exercise, there are elements common to each variation. Wilson and Ralston (2006) laid out a comprehensive and detailed process for scenario planning that included 18 steps, provided on Table 1 Wilson & Ralston, 2006, p. 25). These steps are broken down into four sections: getting started, laying the foundation, creating the scenarios and moving from scenario to decision making. In examining the steps in detail, steps 1-6 related to start-up of the project, defining the scope and assembling the team; steps 7-10 explore the internal and external environment and putting it into context; steps 11-14 focus on developing the scenarios based on the evidence above and then steps 15-18 cover the use of the scenarios to examine current strategies and possible futures with timelines for decisions in the event of a disaster.

This presentation then submits the organizing paradigm for scenario planning and scenario-based training and will be organized through the case study model. Dooley (2002) described case study research in a manner that demonstrated its flexibility. Dooley synthesized the following six elements of case study research: 1) determine and define the research questions; 2) select case(s) and determine the data gathering and analysis techniques; 3) prepare to collect data; 4) collect data in the field; 5) present and analyze the data; and 6) prepare the report (Pp. 338-339).

University leadership can and should be trained using the scenario-based case study model. This presentation will include a model for a training program for crisis management and critical incident containment.

Participant

• Larry M. Dooley, Texas A&M University