Anchor Variables and the Vote in 18 Latin American Countries

• In Event: How do Latin Americans Vote?

Abstract

We examine in this chapter the influence of political variables that reinforce voter loyalty towards candidates of the same political party over time: party ID and ideological orientation. Our goal is to determine if these anchor variables serve a similar purpose in emerging democracies such as those in Latin America as it does in more established democracies. The results of empirical studies on party identification in Latin America seem to tip in favor of this hypothesis. Approximately one-third of the voters in this region readily identify with a political party. What is more party ID has a significant effect on voters’ choices, even when measured with elaborate multivariate models. However, findings related to the effect of ideological orientation on political preferences in Latin America are more mixed. True, the vast majority of Latin American voters –close to 80%- use the concepts of “left” and “right” to interpret the political dynamics of their own country (a percentage still lower than in established democracies). But our results show that the structuring effect of ideology on political attitudes and vote choice is less pronounced and less systematic than for party identification. The overall conclusion is that the effect of party ID is quite systematic in Latin America but that the impact of ideology on political choices varies greatly. Two ideal-types are found amongst the Latin American cases: cases where party identification is the only vote determinant and cases where its impact coexists with that of ideological orientation

Authors

• Richard Nadeau, University of Montreal

• Michael S Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa