Voting stability turnout instability in times of political disenchantment: The case of Chile

• In Event: Electoral reforms and changes in party fortune: Explaining instability in Latin American elections

Abstract

The general election of 2013 witnessed the lowest turnout in the history of Chilean elections. Most of this lack of participation could be explained by the changes to the voting system: The old optional system of voting registration became automatic and compulsory vote turned to voluntary. Despite the changes and the low voter turnout in Chilean politics it was business as usual since Michelle Bachelet of the center-left coalition was re-elected president. Similar to all elections since democratic recovery her main contender was a right wing candidate. Party support and electoral behaviour has remained extraordinary stable in Chile in the last quarter of a century.
This paper estimate behavioural partisanship (the proportion of voters supporting the same party or coalition at two successive elections) which tends to develop primarily as a function of time (Leithner 1997). This behavioural partisanship explains electoral stability in Chilean voter support. Similarly most of the abstention could be explained by the lack of behavioural partisanship of around two millions youngsters who failed to register as a voter in the past. This paper uses ecological inference and public opinion polls when available.

Author

• Miguel A López Varas, Universidad de Chile