Whom do Mexicans Blame for their Insecurity? The Relationship Between Criminal Violence and Trust in Mexico's Security Forces

• In Event: Crime and Violence, Civil-Military Relations, and Democracy in Mexico

Abstract

Since 2006, the Mexican state has struggled to fulfill their raison d’etre — to provide security. In response, this study seeks to understand public evaluations of Mexico’s security forces given the context of extreme criminal violence. Specifically, this study explores the relationship between criminal victimization and public opinion of the police and armed forces in recent years. This works argues that individuals who have experienced criminal violence are less likely to confide in their security forces than those who have not experienced criminal violence. Using data from the National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Security (ENVIPE) in Mexico from 2011-2014, this study finds that Mexicans who have experienced criminal violence personally or in their household are less likely to trust the police. Additionally, however, the analyses suggest that Mexicans are also less likely to confide in the Mexican army and navy, institutions that generally enjoy high levels of public support, if they report having experienced criminal violence. This study has important implications for the waning legitimacy of the Mexican state, its security forces, and the consolidation of democracy in Mexico.

Author

• Antonio Ugues Jr, St. Mary's College of Maryland