The Electoral Success of the Left: Exploring Spatial Models of voting Behavior in Latin America

• In Event: Elections and Voting Behavior in Latin America

Abstract

What accounts for the electoral success of the left in Latin America? One of the most relevant implications of proximity models in spatial theories of voting behavior is that parties must seek centripetal strategies of programmatic competition. However, leftist parties have been very successful seeking centrifugal strategies of party competition. Within the tradition of spatial analysis, this paper uses a directional model to provide a plausible account, assuming that voters are induced to support clearly identifiable options away from the center of the ideological space. Using survey data coming from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), gathered for twelve presidential elections in five Latin American countries (Brazil, México, Peru, Chile y Uruguay) during 2000-2012, the model explains why even voters with moderate preferences that largely predominate in the region have inclined their vote for left wing parties over the course of the last two decades.

Author

• Diego I Luján Barbasola, Universidad de la República