Forecasting rare events: Predicting terrorist attacks at a subnational level

• In Event: Machine Learning and Predictive Models

Brief Overview

We employ a two-stage framework to identify regions which are more likely to experience terrorist attacks. The presented analysis can be used to forecast other rare political events (e.g, civil conflict, government repression, protests).

Authors

• Jared Falkenberg Edgerton, Ohio State University

• Grant Thomas Buckles, Gallup