The Information to Conceded: Election, Ruling Party, and Autocratic Survival

• In Event: Transitions To and From Democracy

Brief Overview

This paper examines 252 autocracies from 1955 to 2010. I find that elections increase the likelihood of strategic concession with an effect mitigated by ruling party strength, whereas their effect on forced transition is negative. My findings demonstrate the distinct logics of the two types of autocratic regime change. While elections do not necessarily protect dictators from regime collapse, they help dictators avoid a violent exit from office.

Author

• Jia Li, The Pennsylvania State University