Understanding the Trump Effect in Polling: A State-Level Analysis of Response Rates from 2012-2020

• In Event: Trumping Public Opinion

Brief Overview

Using longitudinal annual polling data, we study the underestimation of support for Donald Trump. Specifically, we test whether nonresponse bias among conservatives is specific to Trump and if it is related to distrust of institutions.

Author

• James B. Cottrill, Saint Cloud State University