The Simulation Manifesto: The Limits of Brute-Force Empiricism in Geopolitical Forecasting

• In Event: Information Processing

Brief Overview

Theory guided agent-based computer modeling to virtualize rare but high-impact events, melding inside and outside views. To improve forecasting and intelligence performance vs. reliance on big data, idiographic, and scenario-building approaches

Authors

• Ian Lustick, University of Pennsylvania

• Philip Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania