Fundamentals-Based State-Level Forecasts of the 2020 US Presidential Election

• In Event: Modeling Voting Behavior in the 50 States

Brief Overview

We develop a model to forecast US presidential elections at the state-level that relies on economic development, public opinion, as well as institutional advantages and long-term electoral history, and apply it to the 2020 election.

Authors

• Clemens Nollenberger, University of Konstanz

• Gina-Maria Unger, University of Konstanz