Identifying the Effect of Poll Closeness on Voter Turnout: Evidence from Swiss Referenda

• In Event: Comparative Election Administration

Brief Overview

Exploiting a credible quasi-experiment, this paper provides evidence of a significant, causal effect of close pre-election polls on voter turnout. Additional evidence suggests that polls affect turnout by shaping beliefs about election closeness.

Authors

• Leonardo Bursztyn, University of Chicago

• Davide Cantoni, University of Munich (LMU)

• Patricia Funk, Università della Svizzera Italiana

• Felix Schönenberger, Università della Svizzera Italiana

• Noam Yuchtman, London School of Economics and Political Science