Leveraging Armageddon: Nuclear Weapons in Crisis Bargaining

• In Event: Avoiding War, Crafting Peace

Brief Overview

We study the consequences of nuclear weapons for crisis bargaining using a formal model with uncertainty over willingness to escalate. The model shows that even small probabilities of nuclear escalation create overwhelming incentives for bluffing.

Authors

• Joseph J. Ruggiero, Princeton University

• Perry Jess Carter, Princeton University