Modeling the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: “The 215 lb. Gorilla in the Race,” or Trump as a Quasi-Incumbent

• In Event: U.S. Presidential Nominations: Parties, Participation, and Polling

Brief Overview

No contest since 1912 has witnessed a former president running for re-nomination until the current cycle. We hypothesize that Trump’s results will be more like previous non-incumbent front-runners than incumbents running for renomination.

Authors

• Randall E. Adkins, University of Nebraska at Omaha

• Andrew Dowdle, University of Arkansas

• Karen Denice D Sebold, University of Arkansas

• Wayne P. Steger, DePaul University

• Sophia Coco, University of Arkansas