Much Media Copy & Noise but Do Special Elections Help Us Forecast General Elections? Putting their predictive capacity to the test in Ireland and Britain

• In Event: Ballot Design, Election Administration, and Prediction

Brief Overview

This paper explores special elections and their predictive capacity to foretell general elections in Ireland and Britain, a novel first comparative test of these contests' ability to help us forecast election outcomes.

Author

• Stephen Patrick Quinlan, GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences