New Approaches to Forecasting Civil Violence and Geopolitical Crises

• In Event: Forecasting and Time Series

Brief Overview

We provide three innovations for forecasting geopolitical crises: High-frequency civic space measures improve predictions; State Dept travel warnings as new high-frequency outcome; Enhanced validation using modern ML and time-series econometrics.

Authors

• Mahda Soltani, University of Pennsylvania

• Erik Wibbels, University of Pennsylvania

• Jeremy Robert Springman, University of Pennsylvania