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Follow the Money? Prediction Markets and the Polls in the 2024 Election
Thu, April 3, 1:30 to 3:00pm CDT (1:30 to 3:00pm CDT), Palmer House Hilton, Floor: 3rd, Salon 6Brief Overview
This study examines the impact of major news events and changes in polling data on betting behavior in political prediction markets. It uses wagering data from two different types of prediction markets to evaluate the predictive power of the crowd.