Forecasting Referendums: A Structural Model Predicting Adoption and Support Levels in Irish Plebiscites 1968-2024

• In Event: Predictions, Forecasts and Uncertainty

Brief Overview

This paper breaks new ground in the election forecasting literature by proposing a structural ex-ante forecast of referendum outcomes in Ireland

Authors

• Stephen Patrick Quinlan, GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences

• Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa

• Matthew Qvortrup