The Evolution of Polling Error: Analyzing Two Decades of U.S. Presidential Election Polls (2004-2024)

• In Event: Predictions, Forecasts and Uncertainty

Brief Overview

We quantify the presence and evolution of polling errors in U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2024 by comparing pre-election polling data with actual election outcomes.

Authors

• Ehsan Habibpour Moghaddam, American University

• Ali Amini, American University