An Actuary Walks into the War Room: How a Model from Actuarial Science Can Help Forecast the Deadliness of War

• In Event: Forecasting and Time Series

Brief Overview

Recent work in the conflict literature proposes the inverse Burr model for studying war size. I discuss what assumptions this model commits us to and develop software to make this approach accessible for conflict scholars.

Author

• Miles Donovan Williams, Denison University