Punished but Not Defeated? Economic Shocks, Challenger Entry, and Incumbent Accountability in Brazil

• In Event: Populism, Local Governance, and Loyalty: How Governments Maintain Power

Brief Overview

Using Brazil’s 2014 oil royalty shock, I use a differences-in-differences design to show that incumbents in resource-dependent municipalities lose votes but not reelection, driven by a post-shock surge in challenger supply, especially new entrants.

Author

• Laura Chelidonopoulos, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Campus