Board #43 - Modeling Uncertainty in War: A Bayesian Early-Warning Framework for Global Conflict Prediction

• In Event: 75-311 - Poster Session: Understanding Intrastate Conflict and Post-Conflict Development

Brief Overview

This study builds a Bayesian early-warning model to forecast global conflict. By updating probabilities with new political and economic data, it improves accuracy and captures uncertainty in real time for policy insight.

Author

• Angela Yette, Purdue University