The Authoritarian’s Dilemma: Why AI is Not a Silver Bullet for Domestic Repression

• In Event: Politics of AI Workshop V. AI and Security: Policing, Surveillance, and Repression

Brief Overview

We develop a formal model and pair it with evidence from AI deployments in China and Russia to show that prediction systems embed a fundamental calibration trade-off that creates a governance dilemma for autocrats.

Authors

• Jie Lian, Harvard University

• Lefteris Jason Anastasopoulos, University of Georgia