(Sea)Wolves at the Gates: The State of American Submarine Production and Implications of Security in the Indo-Pacific

• In Event: China, the US, and the World: Elephant and Grass

Abstract

As the United States Navy plans to dramatically increase submarine procurement over the next decade to address the growing threat of China in the Indo-Pacific, it is facing a severe workforce crisis that has caused delays in delivery schedules. This paper will explore the origins of this workforce crisis, starting from the cancellation of the Seawolf project following the end of the Cold War and its ongoing effects on the submarine industrial base (SIB). According to 2022 GAO estimates, the current SIB is operating with 20% less staff than necessary, resulting in only one submarine being delivered per year instead of the expected two. This has already impacted future planning, but with the Navy aiming to increase procurement to five submarines per year by 2030 and the older fleet retiring faster than replacements are built, the SIB bottleneck will significantly impact force projection in the Indo-Pacific at a time when China is intensifying its submarine activity in the region. Therefore, this paper will also examine the long-term security implications in the region as the United States commits to an expanded presence underwater through initiatives like AUKUS and the Washington Declaration, and will consider the innovative approaches the Navy must adopt to prioritize force projection in the region.

Author

• Alexander Grey, University of Connecticut