Survival Now, Ideology Later: Why Time-Horizons Matter in Civil War Alliance Politics.

• In Event: Violence, Freedom, and Law

Abstract

What drives rebel groups to ally with ideological adversaries during civil wars? This paper delves into the factors influencing rebel alliance formation, emphasizing the role of perceived survival prospects, or 'durability,' over ideological alignment. I argue that contrary to the traditional focus on realist factors, ideological considerations do matter when insurgent actors feel more secure.
Focusing on the Syrian civil war, I analyze the early behaviors of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Jabhat al-Nusra (now Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham). Initially, both groups relied on guerrilla tactics and formed alliances out of desperation. As Jabhat al-Nusra's durability improved, it transitioned to conventional warfare and opted for ideological alliances, notably allying with al-Qaeda instead of merging with ISIS despite higher costs.

Author

• Camille van Vliet, Boston College