The Influence of the US Elections on US-Kazakhstan Bilateral Relations

• In Event: Domestic and International Affairs

Abstract

The past and upcoming US presidential elections significantly shape Washington's bilateral relations, particularly with countries like Kazakhstan in the post-Soviet space. Kazakhstan, with its 20 million population, acts as a vital hub in Central Asia, connecting neighboring nations such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan.

Kazakhstan pursues a nuanced political course, maintaining strategic ties with Russia through groups like the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), while also participating in China's geo-economic projects. Furthermore, it seeks closer relations with Turkey under Erdogan's leadership and is open to dialogue with France to diversify its international alliances.

For the US, Kazakhstan's significance lies in countering Russian influence in the region and balancing against China's expanding presence. Kazakhstan's cautious stance towards China, particularly concerning the treatment of ethnic Kazakhs and Uighurs, aligns with US interests.

Historically, the US has supported Central Asian independence, evident in initiatives like the "US Strategy in Central Asia" and the "C5+1" format. However, uncertainties persist, especially amid the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The Biden administration aims to uphold democratic values while maintaining partnerships, but a potential return of Trump could bring changes due to his unconventional foreign policy approach.

Nevertheless, it seems important to trace and compare in detail the real actions of the Trump and Biden administrations regarding bilateral interaction with Kazakhstan through a meticulous analysis of the contacts undertaken, their agendas, and their effectiveness. It seems that such an analysis of "small matters" undertaken at the level of bilateral interaction between countries during the functioning of both Democratic and Republican-Trumpist administrations in the White House, together with reflecting these contacts in Kazakhstani and American media, could help form an evidence-based representation of the goals of US foreign policy towards Kazakhstan from the perspectives of both Democrats and Republicans and to make a forecast for the development of these relations under one or another outcome of the US presidential elections.

Author

• Andrei Prudnikov, Eurasian Technological University