Security Shifts and Public Sentiment: How the Recent Shifts in East Asia Geopolitics Affect Japanese Pacifist Norms

• In Event: Changing Dynamics in International Relations

Abstract

Do the recent changes in the East Asian security environment affect Japanese public opinion toward military institutions (i.e., Article 9 of the Constitution and the Self-Defense Forces)? This study seeks to understand if the rise of China’s military power and assertiveness, and the development of North Korea’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities influence the pacifist and non-militaristic norms in Japan’s population. Prior studies have mainly focused on endogenous factors to explain their roots and the variation in attitudes (e.g., Machida 2021; 2023). Others have demonstrated how these norms have “defined the policy interests and the standards of appropriateness for specific policy choices” (Katzenstein and Okawara 1993, 6). Thus, these researches have implicitly treated these norms as relatively immune to the changes on the international level. Using a range of survey data (Todai-Asahi, World Value Survey, Pewresearch Center, Jiji Press) relative to the revision of the Article 9 and the Self-Defense Forces, we empirically evaluate the recent evolution in public opinion from 2000 to 2023. Through factor analysis and time series analysis, this paper focus on the contrast before and after 2011-2012, marked by the arrival of Kim Jong-Un as leader of North Korea, Xi Jinping as head of China, and the reelection of Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister of Japan. Quantifying these changes will shed light on how international events may shape domestic public opinion, contributing to debates on public opinion's influence in international relations and its role in foreign policy decision-making beyond the United States.

Author

• Jozef Rivest, University of Montreal