Israel Hamas War and the Future of the Two-State Solution

• In Event: Assessing Ongoing Militarized Conflicts

Abstract

The outcome of the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is already apparent after 6 months of fighting. Israel is not strong enough relative to Hamas that it cannot both defeat Hamas and creäte any new security configuration in Gaza that Israel wants to secure its population. Israel does face unlimited threat from attacks by Palestinians in the depth of Israel and in the West Bank, Lebanon initiated missiles attaches by Hezbollah, and the Houthi in Yamen who are preventing any shipment to Israel via the Red Sea. Israel and its prime supporter the US are likely to confront offensive incidents of violence against its assets in the Middle East. In practice, Israel will not be able to create almost any security structure in Gaza that it intends to limit Palestinian action in Israel and the West Bank. And the US is likely to lose its presence (military basis) in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Bahrain, and Qatar.
The author argues that for the remainder of the Arab World, Israel is likely to confront major direct military threat from Egypt and the possibility of ending the 40 years peace treaty. Jordan population which has more than ¾ Palestinians will pressure King Abdulla to take brave offensive attacks against Israel's to protect his throne. President Bashar Al-Assad of Syria is still supported by Russia. Putin of Russia will not allow Assad regime to fall as a part of his geopolitical rivalry with the US in the Middle East.

Author

• Ahmed Zohny, Coppin State University