Democrats Abroad and Republicans Overseas: How Do U.S. Based Voters Respond to Uncertainty and Partisan Mobilization Abroad?

• In Event: Voting Behavior and Electoral Dynamics I

Abstract

Should emigrants be allowed to participate in elections in their country of origin? As global mobility and migration increase, many countries now permit their non-resident citizens to vote. However, little is known about how citizens in these countries perceive the extension of voting rights to emigrants. We theorize that when residents become aware of the potential impact of external voters and face uncertainty about how these voters might cast their ballots, they may oppose enfranchising emigrants and the institutions supporting this right (H1). Furthermore, we expect that these negative effects will be more pronounced among those living in competitive states (H2). Additionally, when voting outcomes become more predictable, residents are likely to support or oppose external voting based on whether their preferred party stands to gain or lose (H3). We test this theory in the context of American politics focusing on the prospective impact of emigrant voters on the 2026 midterm election. We use an original pre-registered survey experiment that examines the effects of uncertainty and perceived partisan mobilization efforts on the attitudes of resident voters toward emigrant voters. Specifically, participants residing in the United States read a news story covering the relative influence of emigrant voters in deciding over elections in battleground states and mobilization efforts abroad led by either (1) a non-partisan organization or (2) Democrats Abroad.

Author

• Jair Alexander Moreira, University of Pennsylvania