Angry Young Men? Youth Bulge and Post-Election Protests in Autocracies

• In Event: Ideologies, Mobilization and Resistance

Abstract

Previous scholarship on post-election protests has primarily focused on electoral fraud, political grievances, and state repression as key drivers of protest mobilization. Studies have highlighted how perceived manipulation of electoral outcomes, human rights violations, and broader dissatisfaction with governance contribute to protest activity, particularly in the wake of contested elections. However, less attention has been paid to the structural demographic features that may shape a population’s propensity to protest, especially within authoritarian regimes where political opportunities are more restricted. This paper investigates whether there is a relationship between demographic composition—specifically, the size of a country’s young population—and the likelihood of post-election protest in autocratic contexts.
Drawing on global quantitative data covering more than 40 years, this study analyzes all national-level elections held in authoritarian regimes. By compiling data from a range of cross-national sources, this paper evaluates whether countries with larger youth populations are more prone to experiencing post-election unrest. The analysis uses panel data regression techniques to examine both short-term protest responses and longer-term trends across different regions and time periods.

This paper contributes to the growing literature on electora studies by combinging the literature from social movements with that on elections. It also highlights the importance of considering population dynamics in future studies of electoral contention.

Author

• Bashir Tofangsazi, Xavier University