Instability as Strategy: Examining the Role of Perpetuated Uncertainty in the Durability of Authoritarian Regimes

• In Event: The Authoritarian Playbook: Tactics Across Time and Regime Type

Abstract

This research investigates how the deliberate or systemic generation of instability may contribute to the endurance of authoritarian regimes. Seeking to expand the literature on authoritarian durability, the study explores how persistent uncertainty—manifested in institutional deformation and chronic inflation—functions as a mechanism for regime survival. The Islamic Republic of Iran, established in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, serves as the case study.

The central hypothesis posits that while sustained instability may erode national prosperity, it paradoxically reinforces authoritarian resilience by obstructing organized opposition, weakening institutional accountability, and fostering dependency on the ruling elite. Iran is a compelling case for this inquiry due to three key factors. First, its revolutionary origin produced a hybrid governance model characterized by overlapping authorities and parallel institutions, generating sustained institutional ambiguity. Second, its economic domain has been marked by inconsistent and contradictory policy decisions, leading to prolonged periods of double-digit inflation—the longest such episode globally. These dynamics exemplify how economicو institutional and political uncertainty may be strategically or structurally embedded.

Methodologically, the study employs process tracing and second-level path dependency as core tools within a single-case design. To address the multifaceted nature of the research puzzle, a mixed-methods approach is adopted, combining qualitative institutional analysis with quantitative evaluation of economic indicators.

Author

• Amir Mahdavi, University of Connecticut