From the Little Island That Could to the Mainland: Puerto Rican Turnout in Presidential Elections

• In Event: Culture, Affect, and Political Representation

Abstract

We argue that different Latino subgroups vote differently over time due to group membership as well as structural level factors that constrain voting behavior. Our contention is that among Latino subgroups there is great variability regarding turnout. Certain Latino subgroups will vote at greater levels than other groups. We further analyze what factors influence turnout among these various groups. In this paper we focus our attention on Puerto Ricans.
Puerto Ricans are the second largest Latino subgroup in the United States. Puerto Ricans occupy a unique space in Latino politics as they are the only Latino group that are born American citizens. Once could expect that them being Americans may differently affect their turnout behavior. According to research for the Pew Research Center approximately 5.8 million Puerto Ricans live in the United States with another roughly 3.3 million living in Puerto Rico (Krogstad and Noe-Bustamante 2021). The number of Puerto Ricans living in the mainland is growing as many are moving from the island to the mainland for a variety of reasons including job and housing opportunities and the aftereffects of Hurricanes Irma and Marie.
We provide statistical analysis of presidential elections from 1980-2020. In our model we include both socio-economic variables as well as structural determinants to see each variable’s effect on each election. We use data from the Current Population Survey of the US Census to conduct this analysis.

Authors

• Beth Ginsberg, University of Connecticut

• Sarah Perez, University of Texas