Resisting Populist Autocratization: Shifting Oppositional Narratives and Strategies in Turkey

• In Event: The Populist Challenge and Democratic Defenses

Abstract

Autocratizing regimes create challenging contexts for oppositional actors, as they must adapt to changing rules of the game and the narrowing of oppositional space. When autocratization is implemented by populist actors, the opposition must also confront polarizing and delegitimizing culturalized narratives. The existing literature on resistance to autocratization emphasizes the shifting venues of the opposition, moving from within institutions to outside them, as well as the effectiveness of coordination strategies among diverse oppositional actors. In this paper, we examine the evolution of oppositional politics in Turkey during the AKP's rule (2002-2025), a paradigmatic case of gradual autocratization by populists in power, and evaluate the existing literature. Consistent with the literature, we observe that in Turkey, 1) the venue of opposition to autocratization shifted from inside to outside institutions as the state was captured by the incumbents; and 2) large oppositional alliances showed some success in later stages. However, in the Turkish case, there was a notable delay for oppositional actors to prioritize the democracy question (not focusing on it in the first decade of autocratization); we argue this was due to the culturalization of politics by not only the right-wing populist incumbents but also by the opposition. Second, when oppositional actors began to emphasize the democracy question and form alliances in the later stages of autocratization, they overcorrected their narrative, focusing primarily on the procedural aspects of democracy at the expense of other significant issues, and disregarded the social cleavages that divide diverse oppositional constituencies. These two factors, we argue, weakened oppositional alliances. Therefore, we maintain that oppositional narratives and the specific ways alliances are formed are critical factors to consider when studying the effectiveness of oppositional strategies in slowing down or reversing autocratization.

Authors

• Yunus Sozen, Le Moyne College

• Metehan Tekinirk, Colgate University