Secular-Religious Party Competition and Conditions of Secular Success

• In Event: Global Shifts in Party Politics and Power

Abstract

Why do secular parties succeed in some contexts despite lacking the dense organizational networks often enjoyed by their religious rivals? This paper develops a theory of comparative organizational capacity to explain variation in secular party success, focusing on the secular–religious cleavage as a distinct axis of political competition. We argue that secular parties are more likely to succeed when they (1) build robust grassroots networks and (2) operate in environments where religious institutions are historically weak or fragmented. Using a mixed-methods research design, we test this theory through large-N cross-national analysis based on V-Party and V-Dem data, comparative historical case studies of post-authoritarian Italy and Portugal, and subnational analyses of Italy’s 1948 and Portugal’s 1975-1976 elections. We show that secular parties consistently face structural disadvantages in organizational capacity, but when they overcome these gaps—particularly in contexts where church infrastructure is weaker—they achieve substantial electoral gains. We conclude by reflecting on the long-run implications of these organizational asymmetries, including how the legacy of Church–party alliances continues to shape party competition and supports the religious framing of today’s far-right politics in Catholic Europe.

Authors

• H. Zeynep Bulutgil, University College London

• Aytug Sasmaz, Bryn Mawr College

• Giovanni Hollenweger, University College London