The Puzzling Decline of Male Employment

• In Event: Gender, Taxation, and Labor Markets

Abstract

The decline in the employment of prime-aged males (ages 25-54) in the United States poses a significant policy challenge. Existing studies rely heavily on survey data, which do not follow individuals over time and depend on self-reports of employment and income. Our paper leverages survey records from the CPS and SIPP linked to longitudinal tax and administrative program records between 1978-2020 to provide a more detailed and accurate understanding of the magnitude of this decline and the economic circumstances of non-employed men.

We first use these data to analyze the magnitude of the change in employment of prime-aged men. The longitudinal nature of our data also allows us to perform several analyses that would not be possible using public-use survey data, including controling for changes in the composition of a given cohort over time. Pooling together multiple cross-sections of survey data also affords us a much larger sample size, allowing us to examine the differences across key subgroups. We additionally go beyond examining non-employment at a point in time to look at the length of non-employment spells and the temporary versus chronic nature of non-employment.

Second, we conduct a thorough investigation of the economic circumstances of non-employed men. We start by examining the non-labor sources from which non-employed men draw their income, as well as the incomes of other individuals who live in the same household. We also examine various measures of material well-being and mortality that paint a fuller picture of the conditions and living standards of non-employed men.

Authors

• Brian Curran, University of Chicago

• Bruce Meyer, University of Chicago

• Derek Wu, University of Virginia