Universal Cash Transfers and Food Hardship: Evidence from Google Trends Data

• In Event: Poverty and Public Policy

Abstract

While an old idea, universal cash transfers have regained interest among the public, policymakers, and social scientists as a means to improve health and economic outcomes. Yet, we know little about how this policy implemented at scale may affect food hardship. While recent work examines the effects of unconditional cash through field experiments, these studies have recruitment criteria, such as income cutoffs, that prevent them from speaking to the effects of universal cash. Treatment groups are small relative to the population at large; therefore, it is unclear if findings would apply at scale. For example, grocers may increase their prices in response to a universal cash transfer, effectively offsetting any potential gains in food security.

I fill this gap in the literature by leveraging annual variation in the disbursement date of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD)—a yearly cash payment for which nearly all Alaskans are eligible—within an event-study framework. Given the lack of appropriate survey data, I use Google Trends data on weekly search intensity for terms plausibly related to food hardship as a proxy.

I find reductions in food hardship in the weeks following PFD disbursement; however, this effect fades completely after about one month. Results are robust to a variety of specification checks and placebo tests. In my discussion, I relate these findings back to large literatures on food insecurity, universal basic income, and the broader social safety net.

Author

• Christopher Pulliam, Columbia University