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Adolescents’ expectations for their future influence their adult outcomes (Mello, 2009), including the timing of young adult role transitions (Beal et al., 2016). While gender has previously been demonstrated to impact adolescent expectations and adult attainment (Crockett & Bingham, 2000), little is known about gender differences in the impact of adolescents’ future expectations on adult outcomes. To address this gap, we examined gender as a moderator of the relations previously identified between latent profiles of adolescents’ expectations for adult life and subsequent adult outcomes.
Data came from 626 youth surveyed in grades 10-12 and early adulthood (Mean age=23.37). A mover-stayer latent profile analysis conducted previously with this sample identified three groups based on adolescents’ expected timing of five adult role transitions. “Fast-starters” expected to transition in all domains between ages 19-23, “Career-focused” youth anticipated somewhat delayed completion of school, entry into work, and independent living compared to “Fast-starters,” and “Education-focused” youth anticipated delays in school completion and entry into work compared to other profiles. In this study, we examined relations between these profiles and young adult outcomes and explored gender differences in these relations. Adult outcomes were educational attainment, job status, independent living, marriage, and parenthood, and the age when each role transition occurred. A path model was estimated in Mplus to examine interactions of gender with grade 11 and 12 profile membership and stability of profile membership on the outcomes (Figure).
Gender had a significant main effect on profile membership in grades 11 and 12, stability of profile membership, and young adult outcomes across all five domains (school, work, independent living, marriage, parenting; Table). Specifically, being a woman was associated with a significantly earlier age of completing education, less than full-time employment, older age of independent living, and increased rates of marriage and parenting. Moreover, young women were significantly more likely to be in the Fast-starter profile in grade 11 and were less likely to switch profiles between grades 11 and 12, whereas young men were more likely to be Fast-starters in grade 12. Tests for moderation indicated that educational expectations in grade 10 were more strongly associated with classification into the Education-focused profile in grade 11 for girls compared to boys. Furthermore, grade 11 profile membership was more strongly related to becoming a parent for women than for men. Lastly, a significant gender by mover status interaction indicated that among adolescents identified as likely to change profiles (i.e., movers), boys were more likely than girls to be in Employment-focused or Early starter profiles in grade 12, while among adolescents identified as unlikely to change profiles (i.e., stayers), girls were more likely than boys to be in Employment-focused or Early starter profiles in grade 12. Taken together, these findings suggest that beliefs about the future may be more strongly tied to young adult outcomes for women than for men. Discussion will focus on gender as a critical lens for understanding the impact of future-oriented cognitions in foreshadowing the future life course for adolescents.