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Theories of adolescent offending focus on the role of punishment and peer antisocial behavior. Deterrence theory for example suggests that individuals refrain from engaging in criminal activity out of fear of punishment and extensive research has shown the inverse relationship between perceived risk or certainty of punishment and offending (Kim et al. 2014). Similarly, the association between youth delinquency and involvement with antisocial peers is generally well-established (e.g., Monahan et al., 2014). Furthermore, there is evidence for the causal mechanisms linking peer delinquency to youth outcomes. For example, when youth switch from non-delinquent peer group to a more deviant group, their delinquent behavior becomes also elevated.
However, adolescent delinquency takes place within the larger context of the individuals’ life choices. Thus, other motivational and social variables are likely to influence adolescent involvement in delinquent behavior. With regard to punishment, focusing on social consequences of offending behavior (e.g., loss of reputation, relationship costs, and negative effects on future career and academic reputation) can help us better understand risk and protective factors involved in adolescent delinquency. As such, Boufford (2015) and Intravia et al. (2012) found that social costs have a unique effect on adolescent offending. Similarly, adolescent aspirations for success can also add important background information for understanding the motivational forces involved in adolescent offending. If adolescents have high aspirations for success and perceive the social costs of offending to be high, their certainty of being caught and punished is likely to have an additional protective effect, whereas peer delinquency is likely to be less influential.
The current study investigated the role of adolescent perceived certainty of punishment, peer antisocial behavior, perceived social costs of delinquency, and aspirations for success among 1,354 serious juvenile offenders. The study took place over a 7-year period, with participants at age 14 to 18 at baseline. Analyses employed hierarchical linear modeling to investigate the effect of lagged social and motivational predictors on offending, as well as their interactions. Results indicated two three-way interactions. First, the effect of perceived certainty of punishment on offending was moderated by social costs of delinquency and aspirations for success. As can be seen in Figure 1, among youth with low aspirations, low social costs were more protective than high social costs. However, among youth with high aspirations, high social costs were more protective.
The effect of peer problem behavior was also moderated by social costs and aspirations (Figure 2). High social costs protected youth with high aspirations, but not youth with low aspirations from negative effects of peer problem behavior on offending. Results will further explore the gender and race differences in the effect of these variables and discussion will focus on the implications of these findings for future research.