Global Estimates of the Effects of COVID-19-related Preschool Closures on Children’s Development, Learning, and Economic Wellbeing

• In Event: Early Childhood Education in Developing Countries During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Estimates of Risk and Protection

Abstract

Globally, nearly 1.6 billion pre-primary through post-secondary students – more than 90% of those enrolled – have missed school as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic (UNESCO, 2020). Although several papers have estimated the global economic consequences of these closures for primary and secondary school students (Azevedo et al., 2020; Psacharopoulos et al., 2020), little is known regarding the implications of educational disruptions for preprimary-aged children. To fill this gap, this study uses existing multi-national data to estimate the impacts of COVID-19-related early childhood care and education (ECCE) closures on children’s development during early childhood, learning during adolescence, and earnings through adulthood. Given the known importance of ECCE for promoting foundational skills (Barnett, 2011; Engle et al., 2011) along with the lack of alternative options for independent remote learning in this age group (UNICEF, 2020), we hypothesize that disruptions to ECCE services will have large impacts, both in the short and long term.

To estimate the impacts of ECCE closures on early childhood development, we used existing (pre-COVID-19) data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS; N = 61 countries, ~180,000 children). To estimate impacts on adolescent learning, we used data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA; N = 76 countries, ~344,000 adolescents). More information on the MICS and PISA is included in the note for Table 1. Within each data source, we estimated country-specific associations between ECCE participation and children’s development (MICS) or learning (PISA) using regression models controlling for potential child- and setting-level confounds. We then used random-effects meta-analysis to compute the average of these associations within country income groups (high-, upper middle-, lower middle- and low-income). Next, similar to prior work on primary and secondary school closures (e.g., Azevedo et al., 2020), we employed these coefficients along with estimates of the total number of preschool-aged children obtained through UNESCO to estimate predicted values of (1) the number of children who will be off-track in early development and (2) the number of years of adolescent learning that will be lost due to COVID-19 ECCE disruptions, assuming 3- and 12-month closure scenarios. Finally, we converted anticipated losses in adolescent learning into future reductions in labor market income following established methods (see Table 1 note).

As shown in Table 1, results suggest that more than 22 million children globally will fall behind in their early developmental trajectories and nearly 29 million years of learning will be lost by adolescence if ECCE services remain closed for 12 months, translating into more than USD 825 billion in future wage losses (or slightly less than 1% of pre-COVID-19 global GDP). Figure 1 visualizes adolescent learning losses by country. Notably, lower-middle-income countries appear to be particularly hard-hit by shut-downs. Estimates are smaller – but still substantial – under a 3-month closure scenario. These results collectively suggest that ECCE closures during the COVID-19 pandemic will have lasting and in some ways inequitable impacts on children and societies. Limitations and implications for practice and policy (e.g., potential approaches to mitigation at multiple levels) will be discussed.

Authors

• Dana Charles McCoy, Harvard University
  Presenting Author

• Jorge Cuartas, Harvard University
  Non-Presenting Author

• Jere Behrman, University of Pennsylvania
  Non-Presenting Author

• Claudia Cappa, UNICEF
  Non-Presenting Author

• Jody Heymann, University of California at Los Angeles
  Non-Presenting Author

• Florencia López Bóo, Inter-American Development Bank
  Non-Presenting Author

• Chunling Lu, Harvard Medical School
  Non-Presenting Author

• Abbie Raikes, University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC)
  Non-Presenting Author

• Linda Richter, University of Witwatersrand
  Non-Presenting Author

• Alan Stein, Oxford University
  Non-Presenting Author

• Günther Fink, Swiss Tropical Public Health Institute
  Non-Presenting Author