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The “preschool fadeout effect” refers to initial performance differences at school entry observed, favoring students who attended certain early childhood education programs over others, disappearing over time. The quality of the elementary school children later attend partially explains some preschool fadeout effects, but evidence is mixed. Some studies report sustained effects of preschool when students later attend high-quality elementary schools (Ansari & Pianta, 2018; Zhai et al., 2012), while others find sustained effects of pre-K within lower-quality elementary schools (Magnuson et al., 2007).
With a large-scale, prospective longitudinal design, the present study examined 5th and 8th grade student performance (G5 N = 29,117; G8 N = 21,406; 59% Latinx, 34% Black, 7% White/other; 81% FRL in G5) for students who attended three different types of ECE programs - public-school pre-K (pre-K), center-based care (CBC), and family childcare (FCC) as a function of elementary school quality. In addition to seeing if sustained positive effects of public school pre-K existed for 5th and 8th grade, we also examined whether sustained pre-K program effects were dependent on the quality of the elementary school the child attended in 5th grade. Finally, we examined potential interactions with student gender and race/ethnicity (Black vs. Hispanic/Latinx).
Multiple regression analyses were conducted in Mplus (TYPE=COMPLEX for nesting and FIML for missing data). Outcome variables included GPA, standardized math and reading test scores, and grade retention in 5th and 8th grade. Elementary school quality was measured as the school’s ‘grade’ (A, B, C, D, F) determined by the State Department of Education. Covariates included age-4 cognitive skills (directly assessed with the LAP-D), gender, ethnicity, free/reduced lunch status, and disability status.
Positive sustained effects for all outcomes in 5th grade were found for students who attended pre-K programs compared to students who attended CBC and FCC. By 8th grade, fadeout was more common, but effects still favored the pre-K group for GPA, reading scores, and middle school retention (see Table 1 for 5th grade GPA). In 5th grade, school quality moderated pre-K effects for math and reading scores - fadeout occurred more for children attending lower quality schools, and sustained effects were larger for children attending better-performing schools. For 8th grade math, the same pattern of fadeout at low-quality schools and persistence at high-quality schools was found, favoring the public-school pre-K group (see Figure 1 for G8 Reading).
Results varied somewhat by child gender and race/ethnicity, with stronger pre-K type by school quality interactions present for boys than girls (G5 GPA, G5 Math and Reading, G8 Reading). The same pattern of stronger positive public-school pre-K effects existing for Hispanic/Latinx students on G5 Reading, and for Black students on middle school retention, was found.
The current study provides additional evidence of sustained effects of pre-K programs through 8th grade and supports the importance of high-quality public-school pre-K programs. Results also suggest that fadeout is related to later school quality and the type of ECE contrast made, and attending a high-quality elementary school appears particularly important for boys and for Black students.