Predictors and Outcomes of Being Retained Twice in Elementary School

• In Event: Poster Session 11
  In Poster Session: PS 11 Topic - Education, Schooling

Abstract

Grade retention is a common, but highly contested, intervention. Educators have long debated whether struggling students benefit from being held back a year or from being promoted with their peers (Frey, 2005). Despite the controversial nature of grade retention, it is relatively common, with approximately 10% of U.S. students held back between kindergarten and 8th grade (Planty et al., 2009). However, little is known about students who are retained more than once in their schooling. Given limited knowledge of these students, this project examined the prevalence, predictors, and outcomes of being held back twice in elementary school.

We examined multiple retentions within a large, ethnically diverse (52.7% Latinx, 43.7% Black, 3.6% White/Asian/Other) urban, low-income sample of students who had been retained at least once in elementary school (K-G5) (N = 5,490, 17% of larger sample). These data were drawn from a larger, ongoing project that prospectively followed children from age 4 throughout their public schooling. Results indicated that twice-retention was rare in this sample of retained students, with only 460 (8% of retained students) held back more than once. When twice-retention did occur, it happened most often in 3rd grade due to a state-wide promotional gate. All students who were retained a second time in 3rd grade failed the high-stakes reading test required for promotion to 4th grade.

We conducted a logistic regression model to predict twice-retention using demographics, school readiness skills at age 4, and kindergarten academic performance (see Table 1). Black students had double the odds of being retained twice during elementary school compared to their peers, and students receiving free lunch also had higher odds of being twice-retained. Students with disabilities had significantly lower odds of being held back more than once. There were no differences in the odds of being retained twice based on school readiness skills at age 4 (with other covariates included). However, kindergarten performance was associated with twice-retained status, with better-performing students having lower odds of being retained a second time.

Finally, we conducted regression models to predict 5th grade academic outcomes (see Table 2) using twice-retained status and a variety of control variables. These models accounted for nesting of children within schools. Students who were retained twice had poorer outcomes on 5th grade GPA, even after controlling for poverty and initial school performance compared to students who were retained once. Students who were retained twice performed no differently than once-retained students on 5th grade math and reading tests.

Even after controlling for factors such as initial school performance and school readiness, Black students and students in poverty are disproportionately represented among students who are twice-retained. Results also suggest that twice-retained students perform worse in terms of GPA later compared to their once-retained peers, indicating twice-retention appears to be ineffective. These results are particularly important for states with 3rd grade promotional barriers, which appear to drive twice-retention. Of the 18 states/districts with mandatory 3rd grade retention policies, only 6 explicitly exempt students who have been previously retained from being retained a second time.

Authors

• Jordan E Greenburg, Lindsey Wilson College
  Presenting Author

• Adam Winsler, George Mason University
  Non-Presenting Author