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Sustained music involvement is important for one’s life-long musical trajectories. The transition to high school brings increased anxiety that can have a long-term impact on student success. Research showing positive socioemotional outcomes from music engagement, and academic benefits from long-term exposure to music suggests that sustained involvement in music might assist in the transition to high school. Further, music educators are concerned about losing music students, both in general, but especially in the transition from middle to high school. Earlier work with our large-scale (N=40,000) longitudinal Miami School Readiness Project showed that almost half of students engaged in the arts in 6th grade quit by the end of middle school (Winsler et al., 2019). Also, those who quit music in the transition from 6th to 7th grade had weaker academics and were more likely to be male, have a disability, and be in poverty.
Here, we examine A) persistence rates for students taking music classes in 8th (middle school) and 9th grade (high school) in Miami, Florida, and B) early child factors (gender, race, disability status, ELL status, school readiness, GPA, test scores) that predict persistence in music from 8th to 9th grade. Of the 2,519 students who were enrolled in a music elective course in 8th grade, an astounding 73% (n = 1,828) of students did not take a music class in 9th grade. The only variables that predicted persistence were 8th grade math scores and GPA - those with greater prior academic skills were more likely to persist in music. Other (unmeasured) factors seem to be important in students’ decisions to drop music in 9th grade. Results from additional multivariate logistic regressions will be reported at the conference that examine sub-group differences and interactions, and whether predictors of persistence in music into high school vary by music type (band, chorus, guitar, orchestra).