How the HEROES Act Could Have Reduced Poverty Among Young Children

• In Event: Poster Session 06
  In Poster Session: PS 06 Topic - Solicited Content: COVID-19 Related

Abstract

The policies enacted in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were successful at reducing economic hardship to some extent (Parolin, Curran, and Wimer 2020), but some of the help lasted only a few months. As some of the most significant provisions were set to expire, Congress considered various options to increase families’ economic security, including the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act. Among other provisions, the HEROES Act proposed extending the additional $600 per week unemployment benefit, distributing and expanding eligibility for a second round of stimulus checks, and increasing Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits.

Overall, the HEROES Act could have reduced poverty in the last five months of the year by about 32 percent. This study focuses on the impact of the proposed HEROES Act policies on poverty among young children aged 0-5. Poverty among young children remains a significant problem in the U.S.-- about 3.5 million children ages 0-5 experienced poverty in 2019 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019). Child poverty is exacerbated by the pandemic, particularly for non-white children, as families with young children have faced significant challenges, including job loss, food insecurity, and navigating employment and child care (Mitchell, 2020). The HEROES Act policies could reduce overall poverty among young children and reduce the poverty gap between white families and families of color.

The analysis uses the Analysis of Transfers, Taxes, and Income Security (ATTIS) microsimulation model to project poverty for children ages 0-5 in August through December of 2020. ATTIS applies the national and state-level policy and program rules of all major social assistance programs to American Community Survey (ACS) data, allowing detailed demographic level analyses. The model estimates eligibility, benefits, and enrollment for cash transfers, nutrition benefits (including SNAP), and other in-kind benefits such as housing subsidies. For this analysis, the model is applied to data adjusted to better represent the economic circumstances during 2020. We use ATTIS to model the safety net without the HEROES Act, and then model the proposed HEROES Act policies on top of the standard safety net. Because the policies would apply in the last five months of the year, the analysis uses a measure of poverty that compares income, SNAP, and the second stimulus check received in August through December against five-twelfths of the annual poverty level.

The attached table shows the impact of select HEROES Act policies for all people. We estimate that these three provisions alone would keep 12.2 million people out of poverty from August to December. Based on the “all-people” analysis we expect that the HEROES Act policies would have significantly reduced poverty among young children over this period. We also expect that without policy intervention, significant disparities in poverty will remain, with non-Hispanic black and Hispanic children experiencing the highest levels of poverty. As much of the analysis has already been completed, the data analysis on poverty among young children require minimal additional work and will be complete within the next 1-2 months, well before the conference date.

Author

• Ilham Dehry, Urban Institute
  Presenting Author